Rebels take over Syria, Assad is overthrown

As of December 9, 2024, Syria is undergoing significant political and military changes. A coalition of rebel groups, each with distinct ideologies and objectives, began an offensive on November 27, 2024, seizing key cities including Aleppo, Hama, and Homs. The rapid progression culminated in the capture of Damascus on December 8, effectively ending Assad’s regime. Assad and his family have reportedly fled to Moscow, where they have been granted asylum by Russia.

The fall of Assad’s regime marks a significant turning point after 13 years of civil war and over 50 years of his family’s rule. While many Syrians are hopeful for a new era, the situation remains volatile, with concerns about extremist groups like ISIS attempting to exploit the instability.

In response, the U.S. has conducted over 75 precision airstrikes targeting ISIS factions in Syria to prevent them from exploiting the power vacuum. Israel has conducted airstrikes targeting Syrian military assets and has seized a buffer zone in the Golan Heights, aiming to prevent weapons from falling into hostile hands amid the chaos.

While there are many factions and currents within the rebellion, with numerous leaders, a prominent emerging figure is Abu Mohammed al-Julani. More time is needed to determine whether he will remain at the helm, but it is important to understand him, given his rising status. Al-Julani, a former/current jihadist, carries the name of the Golan Heights (Julani), which may reflect his ideology. Although he is a former Al Qaeda leader in Syria and has an extreme Islamic background, he reportedly advocates methods such as preserving the institutional framework (government, parliament, etc.) in Syria for the time being. With that said, it makes sense to give time until the rebels leadership structure is clarified, as there are many groups and organizations who take part and may claim leadership at a later stage.

Why now?

• Hezbollah, an ally of the Assad regime who had fought alongside it during the Civil War, has significantly weakened following the conflict with Israel. With Hezbollah’s forces weakened or redeployed, rebel groups have found an opportunity to fill power vacuums in areas previously controlled or influenced by Hezbollah.
• Iran and Russia have been the Assad regime’s two main international backers during the Syrian Civil War. Their withdrawal or diminished support (due to their own waging conflicts) represents a turning point, creating opportunities for opposition forces to advance.
• Since severing ties with President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in 2012, Turkey has been a principal supporter of Syrian opposition factions, including the Syrian National Army (SNA). This support has encompassed military aid, training, and logistical assistance. Turkey’s backing has enabled these groups to conduct operations against both Assad’s forces and Kurdish militias, aligning with Ankara’s objectives of countering Kurdish influence near its borders.

What now?

• The rebels are now at a strategic crossroads. Failing to gain recognition and support from Iran and its allies (the “Axis”), they are in a fragile position, where they will be compelled to be friendly (or, at the very least, not antagonistic and hostile) towards Israel. Escalation is not expected; rather, there may be a mutual interest for some time before a return to tensions driven by religious, ethnic, or national divides.
• Instead, rebels will likely direct their attention and resources to cement their position in Syria. They’ll do so by focusing on striking Hezbollah The rebels may also target Hezbollah as a form of retribution for its role in previous conflicts, especially for its heavy-handed tactics and alleged war crimes during Syria’s civil war.