Rebels take over Syria, Assad is overthrown
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Monfort Advisory brief / January 2025
In recent months, Iran has been actively smuggling weapons through Jordan into the West Bank, aiming to arm militant groups and destabilize the region. This strategy has gained momentum as Iran’s traditional smuggling routes via Syria and Lebanon have faced increased challenges. Iran employs complex smuggling networks to transport arms into the West Bank, in support of Palestinian terrorist organizations. One primary route involves moving weapons from Syria into Jordan, and subsequently into the West Bank. Another pathway starts in Syria, passes through Lebanon, and then directly into Israel. These operations are facilitated by a network of loyal militias and operatives across the region. However, with recent development in the region, primarily the overthrow of Assad’s regime and Hezbollah considerable weakening in Lebanon, Iran’s traditional pathways cannot be relied upon.
Enter Jordan. Jordan’s extensive borders are difficult to monitor effectively, posing significant challenges to preventing smuggling activities. The situation is further complicated by internal factors, including economic strains and the presence of a substantial population of Palestinian refugees, which can hinder enforcement efforts. Additionally, Iranian-linked drug trafficking operations are straining Jordan’s security and law enforcement resources while simultaneously financing Iran’s malign activities. The Jordanian King has long been suffering from reduced popularity, and has had difficulties maintaining authority, discipline, and order in the Kingdom. Iran has been taking advantage of the internal dissent, weakness, and lax enforcement.
Iran views Jordan as a strategic entry point into the West Bank, especially as its traditional routes through Syria and Lebanon encounter obstacles. By exploiting Jordan’s internal challenges and geographic proximity, Iran aims to enhance its influence and operational capabilities in the Palestinian territories. This includes efforts to recruit agents and establish smuggling networks within Jordan. Despite these challenges, Jordan has demonstrated a commitment to countering Iranian smuggling efforts. The Jordanian military has conducted airstrikes targeting drug factories linked to Iran-backed militias in southern Syria and has thwarted multiple smuggling attempts along its borders. These actions underscore Jordan’s resolve to address both the security threats posed by smuggling and the broader implications of Iranian influence in the region.